Thursday links: strategy is overrated

04Jun09

“Neither a 200-day simple moving average nor the exponential variation I’ll address below outperform enough to warrant consideration as independent indicators.”  (Condor Options)

“The essence of the indicator [Coppock Curve] is that it assumes a bear market is of relatively short duration; so by definition, it will not be useful when a long-term bear market is under way.”  (Economist)

“(Y)ou can’t get carried away with absolute numbers in the VIX. It’s a statistic, not a stock, I can’t emphasize that enough. Support and resistance are shaky constructs here.”   (Daily Options Report)

“In other words, quality spreads in both the long and short ends of the maturity spectrum have returned to Earth.”  (Barron’s)

Has the Value Line Timeliness Ranking System stopped working?  (CXO Advisory Group)

“One characteristic I’ve found among successful traders is that they function effectively when they’re not trading.”  (TraderFeed)

The Citigroup (C) arb-preferred conversion trade keep getting eaten away by carrying costs.  (Zero Hedge)

Notes from The Big Picture Conference.  (Big Picture)

Is nearly thirty year old investing advice for individual investors still relevant?  (Street Capitalist)

Four examples of low-cost, index-focused ‘lazy portfolios.’  (Kiplinger’s)

Lee Ainslie and Maverick Capital are the next in a series of hedge fund biographies.  (market folly)

Citadel is on the comeback trail.  (Clusterstock)

“The influx of capital into what is a fundamentally capacity constrained strategy [high frequency stat arb] will compress returns and strip the alpha out in short order.”  (Information Arbitrage)

Hedge fund managers want more than 2&20.  They also want to be praised and loved.  (Curious Capitalist)

United Airlines (UAUA) makes a big bet on the future.  (24/7 Wall St., WSJ, MarketBeat)

What does the ISM Manufacturing report typically do during a recession?  (Bespoke)

“June might as well become known as ‘the month the world discovered the deficit problem’.”  (FT Alphaville also Clusterstock)

The steep slope of the yield curve implies better economic times ahead.  (Carpe Diem)

Google Search data indicates consumers may be looking to Ford (F) in the wake of industry uncertainty.  (Caveman Forecaster)

“Still, one day in 2010 or 2011, GM will declare itself profitable. The government’s bailout plan will be hailed. But it will be an illusion created by taxpayers’ black box of billions.”  (WSJ)

Let’s call the whole thing off.  The legacy loans program is dead.  (Baseline Scenario)

The TARP worked.  Is it time to give Hank Paulson a medal?  (Deal Journal, Clusterstock)

Talk of monetization of the debt is premature.  (macroblog)

On the geography of the economic crisis.  (The Atlantic, Ryan Avent)

Executive compensation controversy, redux.  Prepaid variable forward contract come to the fore.  (WSJ)

We humans have difficulties seeing “large scale, long duration problems. We are not wired to see large systems, as being in motion.”  (Gregor)

If “hindsight bias is virtually impossible to eradicate“, what can we do to combat it?  (Psy-Fi Blog)

Strategy is overrated.  “Reaction and execution are the ingredients of winners.”  (Andy Swan)

Once invulnerable, the video game industry is hitting the wall.  (The Big Money)

Is an “innovation deficit” the cause of the current economic downturn?  (BusinessWeek)

“In short, the most fascinating thing about Twitter is not what it’s doing to us. It’s what we’re doing to it.”  (Time)

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