Friday links: trading randomness

21Mar08

The three stages of a bear market. (Deal Journal)

Alan Greenspan has jumped the shark. (Infectious Greed)

“The bottom line is that Bear went under because of the poor judgment of their management…” (Big Picture)

There is only one way Bear Stearns (BSC) sells for $2 a share. (Market Movers)

“It appears to be the case that the Fed wanted Bear to fail,” Mr. [Bill] Miller says. (WSJ.com)

Barry Ritholtz writes, “It was so obvious it was going to fall apart eventually. What is so amazing is how long it took to actually happen.” (Esquire.com)

The language of financial catastrophe. (DealBreaker.com)

“(A) recurring theme in the current crisis is that whatever you always thought was safe is not safe.” (Interfluidity)

The market really is careening around all over the place. (Bespoke Investment Group)

Gold market timers are running for the exits. (Marketwatch.com)

“One particularly uncomfortable truth for traders is that their lack of profits is simply due to trading randomness.” (TraderFeed)

“(A) general truism about human nature: if our decisions have good outcomes, we tend to assume that this is due to our native genius. We entirely discount the role of luck, aka random chance.” (Megan McArdle)

Can CTAs successfully time the futures markets? (CXO Advisory Group)

Why are repo fails at record levels? (naked capitalism)

Somebody sees some opportunity in the mortgage market. (DealScape)

Examining the spread between the 10 year note and 30 year mortgages. (Calculated Risk)

ECRI calls the recession. (Curious Capitalist)

“The best long-run bet is still that there is nothing special about risk-adjusted rates of return on commodities.” (Marginal Revolution)

Historical U.S. recession probabilities. (Economist’s View)

Money, happiness and “prosocial behavior.” (TierneyLab)

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