Wednesday links: gloomy and vague

15Oct08

The banking system has been “saved.”  What next for the economy and markets?  (WSJ.com, NYTimes.com, BusinessWeek.com)

“Do not confuse this moment of calm with a stock market bottom or a sign that a serious recession has been avoided.”  (WashingtonPost.com)

Will the banks actually lend in the face of an economic recession?  (Market Movers, ibid)

“In short: stabilising financials and senior credit markets has passed the buck: to junk credit and to the equity market.”  (FT Alphaville)

Wall Street has to get used to lower salaries and less risk taking.  (WSJ.com, ibid)

The US Treasury can’t force banks to lend.  (naked capitalism)

US corporations are hoarding cash and passing up the opportunity to buy back shares.  (FT.com)

Is the US Treasury going to make money as a bank investor?  (NYTimes.com, MarketBeat)

How prior bank recapitalizations have played out over time.  (Odd Numbers)

Hank Paulson, national hero?  (Deal Journal)

Need cash?  Call a hedge fund.  (DealBook)

The global shipping crisis worsens.  (Clusterstock)

Oil and copper crushed.  (Bespoke, FT Alphaville)

More derivatives trading will migrate to exchanges.  (The Big Money)

Individuals step up to the plate for California short-term debt.  (Money & Co.)

Earnings estimates are too high, but stocks are priced to move.  (Big Picture, Clusterstock)

Do we have to test the lows?  (MarketBeat, Bespoke)

Bad trading involves not just losses.   (TraderFeed)

Diversify your factors.  (Humble Student)

How might the credit crisis play out over time?  (Infectious Greed)

“(T)he bigger the real estate price decline, the more severe the economic downturn we might expect.”  (Econbrowser)

What Bill Gross wants, Bill Gross gets.  (Real Time Economics, Curious Capitalist, Big Picture)

Was the current crisis a white swan or black swan?  (Sly Capital)

“So here’s the lesson, if you ever make a forecast always be gloomy and vague.”  (Crossing Wall Street)

Jim Cramer’s “erratic year.”  (Gawker.com also FT Alphaville)

Trying to tease statistical significance from the relationship between presidential parties and the stock market is a waste of time.  (Mankiw Blog)

This blog recently celebrated, alright noted, its third anniversary.  (Abnormal Returns)

Don’t forget today is Global Handwashing Day.  (SciAm.com)

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