Tuesday links: crossover calls

02Dec08

“When looking at big three-month losses for the Dow, there is no statistical support for the belief that such losses will be followed by yet another month of declines.”  (Marketwatch.com)

“So what will the US stock market be worth if S&P 500 earnings go to zero for three years?”  (Clusterstock)

“Could it be this simple: long term trend following on stocks?”  (World Beta)

Comparing two well-known moving-average crossover systems.  (MarketSci Blog)

If you buy write, you will be happy with it relative to just simply buying the market if either 1) we have a slow, grinding bull market with dormant volatility or 2) we get plowed and you lose less. ”  (Daily Options Report)

“When trading historical patterns, it’s not only necessary to view market history, but also to look for shifts within that history.”  (TraderFeed)

Keeping up with what the biggest hedge funds are buying (and selling).  A continuing series.  (market folly)

Do we need to recalibrate our thoughts on Treasury yields?  (Accrued Interest, WSJ.com, Howard Lindzon)

Sharp declines in yields are not isolated to the U.S.  (Bespoke)

“Modern financial models are highly imperfect, to be sure, and we the modelers are insufferably arrogant. But models don’t kill banks; bankers kill banks.”  (The Big Money)

Why are college endowments dumping private equity stakes?  (Market Movers, naked capitalism)

Private equity investments in financial services firms has generated “debilitating losses.”  (TheDeal.com)

Expect an acceleration in mergers and acquisitions activity in 2009.  (Economist.com)

“Citigroup and other firms need to find ways to keep and attract talented people who can make smart decisions, without lavishing pay on them or rewarding them for shoddy performance.”   (NYTimes.com also Market Movers)

Recession calls are not trivial matters.  (Econbrowser, ibid, Economist’s View, Infectious Greed)

“The Keynesian model has some clear, practical insights about how to think about fiscal policy during economic downturns. But are those insights true?”  (Mankiw Blog)

“(T)he sad reality of creating a viable [auto] industry is all about firing workers and shutting down excess capacity.”  (Deal Journal)

“The markets may be down but there still is a market for the Chicago Cubs.”  (Deal Journal)

Michael Phelps, Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year.  (SI.com)

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