Thursday links: scary predictions

11Dec08

Low T-bill rates are going to roil Treasury-only money market mutual funds.  (WSJ.com also Money & Co.)

“The market for credit protection is now pricing munis as more likely to default than similarly rated investment grade corporate bonds…”  (Clusterstock)

The January Effect works in spades after really bad years for stocks.  (World Beta)

Everybody is pointing to these eight “scary” predictions for 2008.  (Fortune.com)

“It is my belief that many quants, hedge fund managers, and investment bankers came to believe—consciously or not—that, by explicitly embracing and accounting for chance, they had tamed it.”  (Epicurean Dealmaker)

The real implication of the concept of black swans.  (Condor Options)

Markets can rally without all of their technical ducks in a row.”  (Barrons.com)

The inherent conflict in hedge fund performance.  (Economist.com)

Level 3 assets are on the rise on bank balance sheets.  (FT Alphaville)

The denominator effect is very real, particularly when it comes to being able to make new alternative asset commitments.”  (peHUB)

Apollo and Cerberus wandered from their distressed investing roots into the morass that is private equity.  (breakingviews.com)

Endowments that followed a ‘Yale-lite’ approach may be hardest hit in this bear market.  (Economist.com)

Add Vanguard to the firms sponsoring international small-cap ETFs.  (IndexUniverse.com)

Did quantitative easing work in Japan?  (Odd Numbers)

Just what are the multipliers on tax cuts and spending increases?  (Mankiw Blog)

“As long as the economy is in a recession, the budget deficit will be ignored. But some day this will an issue again … and the numbers will be huge.”  (Calculated Risk)

An interesting interview with Hayne Leland, winner of the Stephen A. Ross Prize in Financial Economics.  (Bloomberg on the Economy)

The time is right for a gas tax. (Clusterstock)

If you are the subject of a blog post, don’t respond (at least publicly).  (Dealbreaker)

A dead cat bounce, illustrated.  (GuidePostings)

A clever way has been floated to kill the BCS.  (Deadspin)

Are you curious what other bloggers are saying about Abnormal Returns? So are we. Feel free to check out a compilation of reviews.

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