Friday links: model malaise

23Jan09

Every trading strategy draws upon a model, even if it is not expressed in mathematical symbols.”  (Economist.com)

Given the crash-like behavior of this bear market, don’t expect a true bull market to begin until October 2010, give or take a few months.  (Barrons.com)

Looking for leadership in the four horsemen of technology.  (VIX and More)

Bonds no longer seem like a safe alternative to stocks.  (Bespoke also Howard Lindzon)

“Even without going bankrupt, countries can torment their creditors.”  (Economist.com)

A follow-through based high yield bond strategy.  (MarketSci Blog)

Leveraged and inverse ETFs are NOT meant to be held as long-term investments.”  (Morningstar.com also Daily Options Report)

GE (GE) does not need a AAA rating or GE Capital. (breakingviews.com, Market Movers)

ETN credit risk rears its ugly head.  (Morningstar.com, WSJ.com)

Don’t shed a tear for the principals at Blackstone (BX) and Fortress (FIG).  They took out enough cash at their IPOs to buy back their companies today at a hefty premium.  (WSJ.com)

The fallout from the Bank of America (BAC)-Merrill Lynch “deal from hell.”  (Deal Journal, breakingviews.com)

Expect the wage differential between financial services and the rest of the economy to close.  (NYTimes.com)

Goldman Sachs’ once pristine image is now in tatters, along with the rest of Wall Street.  (Epicurean Dealmaker)

John Thain forgot that it is no longer 2007 and toilets need not cost $35,000.  (Curious Capitalist, Clusterstock, naked capitalism, EconomPic Data)

We are already weary of the bank nationalization debate.  For those not, a collection of links.  (Economix also Interfluidity)

The UK is officially in a recession.  (FT Alphaville, Big Picture)

Rail shipments are off dramatically.  Ironically, we need more rail.  (Calculated Risk, Gregor.us)

An “excellent hour of macroeconomics.”  (EconLog)

A bull market in business news.  (Market Movers)

Not sure exactly what this means, but we will take it as a compliment.  (Systemically Important)

Fixing the New York Times is more complicated than it seems.  (The Balance Sheet, Megan McArdle)

How much is a Best Picture Oscar nomination worth?  (The Big Money)

How much are the Chicago Cubs worth on the open market?  Reportedly $900 million.  (ChicagoTribune.com)

Have we overlooked an interesting post in the investment blogosphere? If so, feel free to drop Abnormal Returns a line.

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