Monday links: the new bear market

02Mar09

Welcome to the “new” bear market.  (Bespoke)

The farther stocks fall, the cheaper they get–and the higher the expected long-term return becomes.  Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean we don’t have a long way to go on the downside.”  (Clusterstock)

“Since all hell broke loose last fall, February marks the third month that everything went down.”  (Capital Spectator)

The market will turn eventually but it will begin with a whimper not a bang.”  (Crossing Wall Street)

On the perils of forecasting stock prices, especially the timing.  (Big Picture)

Options prices are pointing to much greater downside risk.  (Freakonomics)

It’s rarely a great idea to pre-anticipate moves in volatility. You’ll be wrong many times before you catch it right.”  (Daily Options Report)

The rush to the exits of hedge funds continues unabated.  (WSJ.com)

Is gold the best “fear indicator” for today’s market?  (VIX and More)

The Market Timing Popularity Indicator tells us we are closer to a bottom than not.  (Marketwatch.com)

More reactions (we find interesting) on the Warren Buffett-penned shareholder letter.  (A VC, TheStreet.com, FT Alphaville, 24/7 Wall St., Street Capitalist)

A “clear vision” and a nearly pristine balance sheet have served Amazon (AMZN) well in these tough times.  (GigaOm)

Expect more companies, like American Express (AXP), to “return to their roots” after this downturn.  (WSJ.com)

Something has to give.  KKR Private Equity Investments has an indicative NAV five times its current stock price.  (DealBook, WSJ.com)

Allied Capital (ALD) is on the brink.  (WashingtonPost.com)

The “creeping equitization” of Citigroup (C)’s balance sheet.  (Zero Hedge also FT Alphaville)

What’s another $30 billion among friends.  AIG goes back to the well.  (NYTimes.com, WSJ.com, Baseline Scenario, Curious Capitalist, Clusterstock)

“While looming defaults will make the debt markets an unwelcoming place for junk credits, investors have been showing a voracious appetite for all things investment grade.”  (Financial Week)

Have we already experienced a “lost decade“?  (The Big Money)

For Bernanke and Geithner, there are no bad assets.  Only misunderstood assets.”  (Economist’s View)

“Until market actors are dispossessed of the fantasy- maintained fanatically by the political class- that investing is (or can or should be) an easy free lunch, we are doomed to endure such shenanigans. ”  (finem respice)

Pushback against the Santelli rant pushback.  (Atlantic Business, NYMag.com)

Something seems wrong with the way elite U.S. universities finance themselves.”  (BusinessWeek.com)

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