Sunday links: offense to defense

10May09

“So even if March 9th was the bottom of a Great Bear Market that took stocks down 60%+ in 9 years from the 2000 peak (in real terms), let us not celebrate too much about what is likely coming next.”  (Clusterstock also naked capitalism)

Investor sentiment is indicating complacency.  (Trader’s Narrative, Technical Take)

Is the market turning from offense to defense?  (Behind the Headlines)

“Bottom line, as sentiment goes from bad to less bad, stocks (and the economy) tend to rally…and they understand that.”  (Sentiment’s Edge)

Taleb is happy to say that all these economists and bankers are clowns and fools, but he won’t say what investors should be doing.”  (Crossing Wall Street)

The exchange-traded fund business is in the rapid-growth phase where every idea, no matter how scatterbrained, gets a tryout.”  (Marketwatch.com)

Research indicates that “..the market paid on average a 50% premium for growth stocks, relative to value stocks, than a clairvoyant investor would have been willing to pay.”  (Economist.com)

“In short, women trade less frequently, hold less volatile portfolios and expect lower returns than men do.”  (WSJ.com)

How is the IQ Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker ETF (QAI) doing since inception?  (ETF Trends)

The IPO market may be moribund, but secondaries are happening.  (WSJ.com)

A closer look at the KKR deal for Oriential Brewery.  (peHUB)

Why are Fannie and Freddie getting a pass in this environment?  (Clusterstock also Infectious Greed, FT Alphaville)

No-so stressful stress tests, redux.  Reportedly the final stress test results involved “hard bargaining.”  (WSJ.com, Clusterstock)

“I would therefore think that the Fed might be somewhat concerned by the surge in commodity prices over the last few weeks.”  (Econbrowser)

Ten reasons to be cheerful about the economy.  (Telegraph.co.uk)

More thoughts on the employment report.  (Econbrowser, Big Picture, The Stash)

“The economic downturn is forcing a return to a culture of thrift that many economists say could last well beyond the inevitable recovery.”  (NYTimes.com also Atlantic Business)

The Congress is leaving the heavy lifting of the financial crisis the to executive branch and the Fed.  (Marginal Revolution)

A large portion of Alt-A (like Option ARMs) is held on bank balance sheets. So the building Alt-A crisis will be written down as the losses are estimable.”  (Calculated Risk)

“At some point, increasing bank profitability – if it can be sustained – should translate into increased competition, lower spreads, and increased availability of credit. But we are a long way from that point.”  (Baseline Scenario)

Oil is now more correlated with global equity markets.  What about the fundamentals?  (FT Alphaville)

Bioelectricity blows biofuels out of the water, efficiency-wise.  (Time.com)

Google (GOOG) should spin-out YouTube.  (Silicon Alley Insider)

A writer’s identity in the Internet age is tenuous at best.  (Felix Salmon, Curious Capitalist)

The implications of a milder sunspot cycle.  (Caveman Forecaster)

RIP, voice mail.  (Slate.com)

Curious what other bloggers are saying about Abnormal Returns? So are we. Feel free to check out a compilation of reviews.

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